Economic Collapse Masks Strategic Danger: New Report Warns Cuba's Alliances Threaten U.S. Security

A fresh analysis argues that Cuba's deepening economic

A fresh analysis argues that Cuba's deepening economic turmoil does not diminish the security peril it poses to the United States, pointing to Havana's growing alignment with Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran as a potential foothold for adversaries just 90 miles from Florida.

The report, titled "The Dictatorship Next Door: Cuba and the Fight for the Western Hemisphere," from the America First Policy Institute, contends that Washington has long treated Cuba as a humanitarian or migration issue, overlooking the strategic implications of its partnerships with U.S. rivals. These ties, the report suggests, could facilitate intelligence operations, military cooperation, cyber activities, and political meddling close to American shores.

Melissa Ford Maldonado, the report's author and director of the institute's Western Hemisphere Initiative, described Cuba as a "massive national security threat" in an interview, emphasizing its proximity and history of opposing U.S. interests. The report's most pressing concern centers on China, with a June 2026 analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies noting ongoing activity at Cuban sites capable of supporting signals intelligence, some possibly linked to Beijing. Ford Maldonado asserted that credible evidence points to Chinese bases and espionage on the island, exploiting its location to monitor U.S. activities.

Russia's ties with Cuba are even more established

Russia's ties with Cuba are even more established. Ford Maldonado characterized the relationship as "intimate" and "reliable," citing military cooperation and the presence of Cuban nationals fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine, with estimates ranging from 1,000 to 5,000. While Havana denies any official military involvement and says it has prosecuted mercenaries, Ukraine closed its embassy in Havana in October 2025, accusing Cuba of tolerating Russian recruitment. The evidence regarding Iran is less clear-cut, as Ford Maldonado conceded, noting that Tehran's role appears limited to influence operations rather than substantive military or intelligence collaboration.

The Trump administration has nonetheless lumped Iran with Russia and China in its assessment, with a January 2026 executive order declaring Cuba's policies an "unusual and extraordinary threat" and alleging deep intelligence cooperation with Beijing and Russian signals intelligence. The report urges a tougher U.S. response, not new bases, but expanded access agreements, overflight rights, and regional partnerships to maintain a persistent American presence.

Yet such calls for increased pressure come as Cubans endure a severe humanitarian crisis, with power outages exceeding 20 hours daily in most provinces, crippling food production and tourism. Human Rights Watch attributed the collapse to structural inefficiencies, U.S. sanctions, pandemic-related tourism losses, and recent oil restrictions. Critics argue that further squeezing the economy worsens civilian suffering and risks more instability and migration, while U.N. experts have urged lifting sanctions. Ford Maldonado, however, insists that maximum pressure targets the regime, not the people, asserting that the Cuban government's repression justifies continued isolation from Washington and the world.